This article is the 3rd of a 3-part series into Connected and Autonomous Vehicles and smart cities.
The City of the Future
Changing the human-driver-centric paradigm to a CAV-centric one will require a corresponding paradigm shift in vehicle ownership thinking. The majority of vehicle use in the city is for travel to and from work and for leisure purposes at weekends. When the car in not being used however (around 80% of its life), it is sat on a driveway or in a parking lot taking up space. This is not without its own cost and has been estimated in a report by the Virginia Transport Policy Institute[1], that the annual land, construction, maintenance and operational costs of car parks in central business districts (CBDs) totals £2300 to £3900, per space. In other areas the annual costs per space are proportionally high, being estimated at £980 to £2600 in urban areas and £470 to £1700 in suburban locations. The result is that by simply moving one space outside the CBD, an annual saving of £1400 can be made. Consider that most business in the CBD have upwards of 25 parking spaces, some with more, the total annual costs are anything upwards of £35,000, which is considerably more expensive than providing a fleet of shuttle buses for employees.
Typically, a sizeable portion of the land area in cities is allocated to the storage of cars. This equates to a considerable cost in terms of real-estate with less land available for useful purposes. Users of CAVs will have different needs from those of traditional vehicles. Instead of large parking lots, cities of the future will have buildings and public spaces optimised for “drop-off” of passengers; while the CAVs themselves can be re-tasked to another user – eliminating the need for daytime storage. When CAVs eventually need to be maintained or stored for any length of time, they can be sent to cheap storage lots outside of the city limits.
As we have shown, much of the current thinking about transport planning is exclusively human-driver orientated. The task of updating this paradigm, to accommodate the next generation of city transportation infrastructure; will be a challenge requiring the combination of robotics and urban planning skills, understanding and concepts.
While it is infeasible to re-design the roads of an entire city from scratch, new developments are continuously taking place; offering an excellent and valuable opportunity for any developers looking to innovate. A development designed with the future of CAV transportation in mind, is a development designed to last. In the post-autonomous landscape, careful thought needs to be given to the wasteful use of valuable space as parking and to the changing business models and types of ownership of vehicles.
The Human Cost
As a society we pay an enormous premium to allow people to drive. A study conducted in 2013 by the non-profit Eno Center for Transportation[2], revealed that converting just 10% of all the vehicles in the U.S. to CAV versions would reduce the number of accidents each year by 211,000 and save 1,100 lives. The financial savings are equally gigantic, with the cost of human-driving related accidents estimated to be £18 billion. According to a report by Morgan Stanley, £918 billion per year is the amount that could be saved in the U.S. alone, by eliminating human drivers. This includes £109 billion in fuel costs, savings of £350 billion from productivity increases and £337 billion in accident-related savings. The total worldwide savings generated by CAVs (or the cost of having human drivers) is estimated at £3.8 trillion, per year.
Conclusion
The advancing pace of technology is driving massive change in cities, the future of which is by no means certain. Correct application of the appropriate knowledge at key stages in the early development of smart cities is crucial. Oversights, omissions and mistakes made during the early stages, become more expensive to correct the longer they remain. Early intervention and proper guidance is therefore of the utmost importance, if budgets and project timescales are to be met.
To find out more about how we are helping local governments build cities fit for the future, or to chat about how we can help you, please contact us at info@yurbs.org.
Sources:
[1] Litman, T (2012). Parking Management: Strategies, Evaluation and Planning. Victoria Transport Policy Institute. Victoria, B.C.
[2] Preparing a Nation for Autonomous Vehicles, Eno Center for Transportation [online]. Pg. 4. Oct 2013.
Adam is co-founder and a senior consultant at YoUrban. He has a background in robotics and AI and has provided digital transformation and robotics advice to organisations and governments around the world. He is passionate about using technology to build a better, sustainable and more inclusive future.
YoUrban is a new type of consultancy that researches, develops and provides advice on digital strategies, services and technologies to increase the quality of life, sustainability and resilience of citizens, communities and cities. We are specialists in the areas of big data, robotics, AI, telecommunications, digital transformation and smart cities.